Monday, 23 February 2009

Gordon's Obama bounce

There's been a lot of different articles lately about New Labour's expectation of an Obama bounce to their opinion polls. Given public reaction to Dawn Butler's Obama letter. It's a volatile gamble drawing attention or comparisons, as they need to stand up to scrutiny, not just personal but public.

You have to wonder why they would invest so much expectation in this to begin with, as what real value does it have? Obama has of course bailed out the banks and economy in the way Brown did, but does a possible endorsement of his policy effect votes? Will that really be what people think of in the voting booth, when so much news about Brown's role in this recession or how much New Labour have claimed from tax payers has been in the press. People don't unlearn things, forget, but it doesn't take much to remember.

If opinion polls do go up off the back of these meetings, how permanent will that be? Given that there are so many things fundamentally wrong with the direction and actions of New Labour. That unless they're addressed, why would voters listen to them? They have to use any positive attention as a spring board for something more. Which means working through their fatalism. They've become a far too divided party, media certainly sense that and are picking at them one by one.

What's worrying about New Labour expectations is that desperate springs to mind. Not just desperation for improved poll results, but desperate to take what you can before you have to give it up and people with nothing to loose can do very desperate things.

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