The Sun Sets On Labour

Guess they didn't like Brown's speech either. They're including a pull out dossier of Labours failures in the newspaper to, nice touch. Only 30p which is a lot less than what they've actually cost.

Not an underdog now though, that's the headline which shows they're going to lose and lose badly. The Sun with a readership of almost 8 million daily, will be openly backing the Tories up until the election.


Update: Jon Snow has an article up on his blog which expresses what I've been pondering today about this story.

Heeere's Gordy!

Great response to "cuts" from Dave Brown on the Independent.

Adams in the Telegraph Is On Form

Ouch!

Euro Election Results

The EU results can only be described as historically a disastrous and humiliating result for Labour, with a collapse in there heartlands and a lashing from all over the UK. The BNP picked up two seats from them, which means not only will fascists be sitting in the EU, but they now have money to fund them and a platform to speak from. Which is very disheartening, it shouldn't take their election to question why they are getting votes or to challenge them.

Conservative increased their overall vote share by only 1%, though historically won the national vote in Wales, the last time Labour lost an election there was 1918. Just the thought of the popular vote in Wales being for the Tories is incredible enough. In Scotland the SNP just as historically beat Labour by 8%. This leaves Labour second in Scotland and Wales, third in England.

We do seem to be getting into an area of anything but Labour voting. Though the EU results aren't so easy to compare to a general election, given it's viewed in a slightly different way and uses proportional representation. The EU vote has increasing become a referendum on Europe, in the absence of being given one, hence UKIP's high vote and most likely Lib Dems low vote, as they're pro EU. UKIP's success won't translate into a national election, given that people are less likely to vote for smaller parties. So where will those votes go?

A large amount of UKIP's voters are likely to be Tory leaning, given their stance now isn't complete removal from the EU, so that could translate to a large vote share for them. The Green EU support is most likely to move to Lib Dems, which still won't see a lot of votes for them, they really need to start putting up a fight to eat into Labours vote share.

The council elections were a good result for the Conservatives, yet they need more than that to win a majority, they need a landslide. For Cameron to win that landslide he has to convince people, not just focus on peoples dislike for Labour.

However much Labour try to spin this in their uniform voice repeating the party line, over and over again. This was a vote against them through action and inaction, which in the end may be what gives Cameron the landslide he needs, their inability to listen.

UKIP Overtake Labour In The Polls

This election looks to be more a case of how do you like your Labour, well cooked or cremated? The European voting intentions are:

Conservative - 30% (-4)
UKIP - 19% (+13)
Labour - 16% (-9)
Lib Dems - 12% (-8)
Green - 10% (+5)
BNP - 5% (+3)

General election figures:

Conservative - 41% (+2)
Labour - 21% (-6)
Lib Dems - 15 (-2)

They've beaten the lowest Labour record of 23% set in 1981, 2% more and they will become the most unpopular party on record, claiming the title from Majors government, who at their lowest dropped to 20% in the polls. Come on Labour you can do it, you've already started to become the most history making party.

Voter Intentions Post Expense

Conservative - 41% (-2)
Labour - 22% (-5)
Lib Dems - 19 (+1)
Others - 18% (see how that breaks down)

That's the lowest Labour have been since records began. Anthony Wells at UK Polling says about this result:

It is worth considering that YouGov normally give the Liberal Democrats their lowest ratings - if this poll had been carried out by ICM we might very well be looking at a poll with Labour in third place.

The European voting intentions are very interesting to:

Conservative - 29% (-7)
Labour - 20% (-5)
Lib Dems - 19% (-1)
UKIP - 15% (+8)
Green - 6% (+2)
BNP - 3% (-1)
SNP/PC- 4% (nc)

I'm basing swing calculations on what I believe is YouGov's last poll. Either way it's a big swing towards UKIP, BNP haven't benefited from the expense saga as of yet.

Telegraph To Expose MPs Expense Claims

This will be a political armageddon, they're starting with Brown and his minsters tomorrow. One of the posted taster stories:

Paul Murphy, the Welsh Secretary, splashed out more than £3,000 on a new hot water system for his second home, explaining in a letter to the parliamentary fees office that his water was too hot.

Amazing what is he Goldilocks or perhaps he's just not heard of "cold water", I'm already getting angry.

Polls Getting Browner

From the polls in Scotland, it looks like Labour are going to lose to the SNP. Nothing says thanks for the devolution quite like that.

The pre budget polls are holding at the same level to:

Conservative - 45% N/C
Labour - 27% N/C
Lib Dems - 17 -1

That's a 18 point lead for the Tories, which is just awful for Labour. It begs belief that they're still talking about an election next year. As there's no bounce back from that, it's just free falling without a parachute.

First Poll Results - Post Sleaze

Conservative - 43% -1
Labour - 26% -5
Lib Dems - 21 +3

This poll was taken Wednesday and Thursday so includes SmearGate and police assaults backlash, but not Damien Green and police manslaughter charges being raised.

That's quite a drop, but a move from Labour to the Lib Dems, which would reflect left wing core voters like Alice Mahon who said:

“I can no longer be a member of a party that at the leadership level has betrayed many of the values and principles that inspired me as a teenager to join.”

If they keep going at this rate, Labour will become the third party and that's the perfect warning shot that parliament needs. Not only to generate the shock we need to send them for change and accountably, but Lib Dems in opposition would be a good balance against the Tories to govern from. The next poll will be interesting.

EU Warmly Welcomes Gordon Brown

On the off chance you haven't seen this yet, or just for a repeat viewing here's Daniel Hannan being nautical.



Also Nigel Farage letting off steam.

It would be far more entertaining if Westminster was more like that.