My Election Bet Results

As an update on my betting post, I am a loser. My bets largely centred on the Lib Dem vote having some weight and at the very least not dropping. That's not what happened. I lost all the money I made on the leaders debates and the credit in my Ladbrokes piggy bank is 50p. Let that be a lesson to all!

Bets For The General Election

My betting for this election is centred around a few Ladbrokes specials and constituency winners. They are:

Brighton Pavilion - A seat likely to be the Greens first Westminster win, but I've bet Tory in case the left vote gets split between Labour, Lib Dems and Greens. Tories do have a base vote here which could win out.

Hammersmith - My girlfriends constituency who doesn't like the Tories. So I've bet on a Tory win. Also given the Lib Dems were good odds and my own domestic bliss, I placed a small outsider bet on them too.

Harrow West - The seat next door to Tony "my parents live in my second home" McNulty, only a small swing needed for the Tories to win it. Doubt Labour can keep hold of it, with the bad press/expenses mess etc.

Newcastle East - This could be a close call between Labour and Lib Dems, I'm betting on a Lib Dems gain. Lib Dems are polling well in the North East.

Northampton North - A Lib Dem target seat and if the Lib Dems surge translates to votes, a winnable one. So I've bet on a Lib Dem gain.

1 Cabinet Minster to lose there seat - There are a few former Minsters looking vulnerable - Alistair Darling, Jim Knight and Sadiq Khan. Jim Knight being the most likely to lose his seat.

Lastly Tory Targets Special - How far down this list do you go before finding a seat the Tories will win?

Barking
Hemsworth
Birmingham Hall Green
Cambridge
Scunthorpe
St Ives
Darlington
Ashfield
Wallasey
Sunderland Central
Birmingham Erdington
Norwich South
Hampstead & Kilburn
Brighton Pavilion
Morley & Outwood
Eastleigh
Edinburgh South West
Dagenham & Rainham
Watford
Richmond Park
Luton South
Torbay
Broxtowe
Redditch
Croydon Central

I've bet on the ones in bold. The first certain Tory seat is Broxtowe the others could go Tory as a backlash against Labour. So I've put small bet's on them as a just in case.

I will be spending my winnings on dining out and I will raise a glass to New Labour, how sweet that beer will taste. So fingers crossed.


Update: Forgot to add the bet I placed months ago, Nigel Farage to win the Buckingham seat against the Speaker - John Bercow won't be standing as a Tory candidate in a very conservative area, as he has done before, but as Speaker of the House of Commons. That will be like campaigning with terrible BO and food stuck in your teeth. It's certainly worth a little bet, given it would the biggest one finger salute the public have given parliament in modern history. How could I resit?

Leader Debate Bet's

Ladbrokes have expanded and improved last weeks betting on - what will they say at the leaders debate? Much more interesting betting and I must say, makes watching it so much more fun. I won last week after placing a bet on "volcanic ash", thanks to Clegg. This week the debate is on the economy, jobs, debt and the recession. I'm betting on:

Bankers Bonuses - I can't see any leader not wanting to say something about bankers, given public contempt. Not terribly good odds but seems very likely.

Tory Cuts - This is Brown's favourite line, it's like a default setting for him.

Hard working families - Cameron's favourite phrase at the moment, as he looks directly at camera.

Five more years of Gordon Brown - The Tories have been pushing this line in their campaigning, "Britain can't afford 5 more years of Gordon Brown." In a debate of this kind it's a good line to use.

No more boom and bust - Brown will be defending his record as Chancellor and PM, given he has said this on many occasions, it's a good line to use against him.

Fingers crossed.


Update: I won two "Bankers Bonuses" and "Hard working families". Brown unfortunately kept saying "Conservative Cuts" and Cameron "13 years of Gordon Brown and this government". So not quite.

The Grand National 2010 Bets

I love a bet, and the mother of all bet's the Grand National is irresistible. My bets for this years race are to win or place:

Niche Market

Comply or Die

My outsider bets are:

Dream Alliance - More sentimental reasons for placing a bet, I found it such a sweet story.

Character Building - Who is being ridden by female jockey Nina Carberry. She could make Grand National history by being the first woman to win it. I happily place a bet on that.

Fingers crossed and good luck to all.


Update - The winners were (not me!)

1. Don't Push It
2. Black Apalachi
3. State of Play
4. Big Fella Thanks

Oscar Predictions 2010

Last year I didn't do too badly at all in my predictions, this year isn't looking as difficult to predict. Oh and I'm wearing a Valentino chic dress, with Louboutin's “Differa” Heels.

The full nominations can be seen here.

Best Picture

Avatar. This year I think this category won't link with director, given there are so many nominations.

Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow, who would be the first woman to win this award, so fingers crossed.

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart, very American, he's not won before and the sort of film the Oscars love.

Best Actress

Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side is considered the favourite and is highly likely to win. Though Meryl Streep hasn't won for awhile so could steal the statue. I'll go against the favourite and say Streep.

Best Supporting Actor

Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds is a clear favourite.

Best supporting Actress

Mo'Nique in Precious, the Oscars love a tear jerker.

Best Animation

Up, clear winner.

Best Foreign Film

The White Ribbon, I don't see the other nominations having the edge Michael Haneke does.

Best Original Screenplay

Inglourious Basterds, Quentin Tarantino isn't nominated often so is likely to win this category.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Up in the Air, as it isn't likely to pick up any of the other awards.

Glasgow North East By Election - Result

I lost my bet again, I would usually be humble in defeat, yet given the coverage of what a great victory it was and two losses in a row for me, it's starting to feel like a Brown stealth tax. I think I'll push decorum aside.

It's not a vote of victory for Labour, if they couldn't win that seat they couldn't win anything. A turn out of 33%, the lowest turnout in Scottish by-election history, is voter apathy. Is it really victorious that Labour voters are sitting on their hands on mass rather than voting, that's a shinning endorsement of Brown's policies? What wouldn't be then?

When you take into account apathy it's not a good sign for South of the boarder and it's English seats that win elections, as they account for the largest proportion of them. If they can't mobilise their voters in Scotland, in effect their heartlands, that doesn't bode well for England.

Another Bet - Glasgow North East By-Election

In an attempt to turn around my betting fortunes my eye has turned to the Glasgow North East by-election, set for 12th November.

The seat

It's the former Commons Speaker Michael Martin's, who stood down disgraced and considerably more well off. In an area that has a high rate of poverty opinions are mixed, some having empathy for a local man saying he was a set-up, others that he's a greedy haggis.

The contenders

This seat is really a run off between Labour and the SNP. The other parties will take a vote share but this is essentially a show down between parties.

The outsider of interest is John Smeaton, who is one of the men who helped foil the Glasgow Airport terror attack. He standing as an independent for the Jury Team on a clean up politics ticket, he has a good back story and creditability. So he's likely to take some of the protest vote, something that the SNP would normally have to themselves.

The result

Michael Martin won the seat originally with a 10,00 majority, it's considered a rock solid Labour seat. Yet Labour dragged their feet over setting a by-election date, leaving the area without a MP for almost six months. Something the SNP are already exploiting to there advantage as "Labour's arrogance".

The SNP did win the Glasgow East seat right next door, which faces the same problems, yet they already had a foot in the door with the seats on the council. They also have to defend their government record as Labour will.

So in keeping with my betting on something that embarrasses the government, I'm going to bet on the SNP winning by a small majority, as I don't think Labour have done enough to keep hold of their core vote.



Update: for those interested in making a bet, the current odds and what bookies you can use can be seen here.

I'm Betting On?

I've placed two political bet's and in the interest of either being able to gloat if I win or be more inclined to keep my money in my pocket if I lose, my bet's are.

1) The battle of Buckingham seat.

The show down between John Bercow and Nigel Farage, I think could be one of the shockers of election night. As John Bercow won't be standing as a Tory candidate in a very conservative area, as he has done before, but as Speaker of the House of Commons. That will be like campaigning with terrible BO and food stuck in your teeth. It's certainly worth a little bet, given it would the biggest one finger salute the public have given parliament in modern history. How can I resit?

2) Ireland vs the EU

The Irish are voting again on the Lisbon Treaty after the EU tried to address their concerns regarding the legislation. I think the Irish will vote "no" again for numerous reasons. But largely because the EU are asking Ireland to trust that they won't move the goal posts, history indicates otherwise. This will be another one finger salute I believe. Ireland goes to the polls on the 2nd October, so we shall see.

It may seem that I'm inclined to bet on things that cause embarrassment to governments and that is quite correct. That beer will taste so much sweeter when brought by a politician.