Monday, 12 October 2009

Another Bet - Glasgow North East By-Election

In an attempt to turn around my betting fortunes my eye has turned to the Glasgow North East by-election, set for 12th November.

The seat

It's the former Commons Speaker Michael Martin's, who stood down disgraced and considerably more well off. In an area that has a high rate of poverty opinions are mixed, some having empathy for a local man saying he was a set-up, others that he's a greedy haggis.

The contenders

This seat is really a run off between Labour and the SNP. The other parties will take a vote share but this is essentially a show down between parties.

The outsider of interest is John Smeaton, who is one of the men who helped foil the Glasgow Airport terror attack. He standing as an independent for the Jury Team on a clean up politics ticket, he has a good back story and creditability. So he's likely to take some of the protest vote, something that the SNP would normally have to themselves.

The result

Michael Martin won the seat originally with a 10,00 majority, it's considered a rock solid Labour seat. Yet Labour dragged their feet over setting a by-election date, leaving the area without a MP for almost six months. Something the SNP are already exploiting to there advantage as "Labour's arrogance".

The SNP did win the Glasgow East seat right next door, which faces the same problems, yet they already had a foot in the door with the seats on the council. They also have to defend their government record as Labour will.

So in keeping with my betting on something that embarrasses the government, I'm going to bet on the SNP winning by a small majority, as I don't think Labour have done enough to keep hold of their core vote.

Update: for those interested in making a bet, the current odds and what bookies you can use can be seen here.

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