Monday, 8 June 2009

Euro Election Results

The EU results can only be described as historically a disastrous and humiliating result for Labour, with a collapse in there heartlands and a lashing from all over the UK. The BNP picked up two seats from them, which means not only will fascists be sitting in the EU, but they now have money to fund them and a platform to speak from. Which is very disheartening, it shouldn't take their election to question why they are getting votes or to challenge them.

Conservative increased their overall vote share by only 1%, though historically won the national vote in Wales, the last time Labour lost an election there was 1918. Just the thought of the popular vote in Wales being for the Tories is incredible enough. In Scotland the SNP just as historically beat Labour by 8%. This leaves Labour second in Scotland and Wales, third in England.

We do seem to be getting into an area of anything but Labour voting. Though the EU results aren't so easy to compare to a general election, given it's viewed in a slightly different way and uses proportional representation. The EU vote has increasing become a referendum on Europe, in the absence of being given one, hence UKIP's high vote and most likely Lib Dems low vote, as they're pro EU. UKIP's success won't translate into a national election, given that people are less likely to vote for smaller parties. So where will those votes go?

A large amount of UKIP's voters are likely to be Tory leaning, given their stance now isn't complete removal from the EU, so that could translate to a large vote share for them. The Green EU support is most likely to move to Lib Dems, which still won't see a lot of votes for them, they really need to start putting up a fight to eat into Labours vote share.

The council elections were a good result for the Conservatives, yet they need more than that to win a majority, they need a landslide. For Cameron to win that landslide he has to convince people, not just focus on peoples dislike for Labour.

However much Labour try to spin this in their uniform voice repeating the party line, over and over again. This was a vote against them through action and inaction, which in the end may be what gives Cameron the landslide he needs, their inability to listen.

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