Wednesday, 5 May 2010

General Election Prediction 2010

It's very difficult to predict this election, polls are like a boat on a stormy sea, moving back and forth, up and down. In some ways it hangs on Labour's core vote being motivated to go out on the 6th. If the bottom drops out of their base vote, much like the EU elections, they could lose very badly indeed. Also the Lib Dem factor here is unknown, though clearly support has risen, will that translate into seats? As the Lib Dems are at a disadvantage to start with, they have the least amount of seats and much ground to cover.

It has become clear that Labour are going to lose, so the question is how badly? On the bases that Labours core vote sits on their hands or protest votes, a Tory win with a small majority of 10 to 20 seats. If they don't, still Tories, but with minority government, so hung parliament. If it's small enough the Tories may form a coalition with the nationalist parties. If not they'll form with the Lib Dems. I don't see the Lib Dems forming a coalition with Labour to keep the Tories out, that wouldn't be very liberal at all.

It's odd for me as someone who isn't an aligned voter, as a tribal political attitude could be what this election hangs on. I have never understood voting for 'X' party out of loyalty. My Father, Grandfather, Great Grandfather (etc) vote was there own, not mine. Which is frustrating, this election result might, just might, lead to the biggest change in British politics for a 100 years. It also be the last Westminster election fought under first-past-the-post. If Labour poll 3rd but get more seats than the Lib Dems or the Tories form a government with less than 40% of the vote, it's hard to see just how there isn't a very strong argument for changing the way we vote.

Yet what stands between that is the question - how loyal will people be?

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