Kim Jong II Names Successor

Following on from my other posts on North Korea. It's being reported that Kim Jong Un has been named to succeed his father. He is Kim Jong's youngest son, little is known about him other than he was schooled in Switzerland, has a military background, seems to be slightly more Western interested, though not as much as his older brother who was thought to be successor and he's a heavy drinker. Which is slightly worrying.

Atsuhito Isozaki, assistant professor of North Korean politics said:

Before 2012, North Korea must convince the army and the public that Jong Un is the best successor. To pave the way for Jong Un's leadership, it is highly likely that North Korea will turn recent nuclear and missile tests into his achievements.

It's an original campaign, different from a leaflet through the post.

North Korea Threatens to Attack South Korea

Morten Morland cartoon

This situation just got stranger, North Korea has declared it is abandoning the truce that ended the Korean war, and will attack South Korea if it joined US-led inspections of vessels suspected of carrying weapons. Why try to provoke as much as this?

A test for Obama perhaps, their hostile intent has always been US facing. Who can tell with North Korea whether he's struck the right note. The international community is still speaking in one voice and more pressure is being placed on China to get involved. It is a concern that if China stop filling the void sanctions create, that civilians will be the only ones suffering. It's a really difficult balance to maintain, given they have no other recourse.

There far are too many unknowns in this situation, but if Obama and South Korea aren't panicking with the information they have. I think it's most likely that something internally is happening, yet due to their scary state controlled news we're not aware of it.

North Korea - Nuclear Test

Great the nutter has a nuke, Kim Jong II has tested a nuclear weapon. From the data they have on the test, it's an explosion of up to 20 kilotons, which is comparable to the American bombs that destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki. He followed this up today with firing short range missiles into the Sea of Japan.

What's worrying is how volatile the situation and he is, it leaves the international community treading on egg shells. Military action seems very unlikely, given he clearly has weapons and is mad enough to use them. Sanctions have largely been by passed or only effected civilians, no doubt allowing Kim Jong to use it as propaganda. Diplomacy and negotiations to date have only gone so far, before Kim Jong withdraws and does something like this.

The international community response seems to still be the diplomatic one, though Obama is pushing for the one voice together approach. He and the UN/EU may be a good position now to really put pressure on China to include there voice among everyone else's. Their main tactic however may just be trying to keep a lid on it in order to wait out Kim Jong, given he clearly doesn't look well. His son Kim Jong Nam will inherit his position, he seems to be slightly less unstable, and could prove to be open to negotiations.

Kim Jong typically makes a point and steps down from his hostile position, though with a powerful nuclear weapon in the situation, it could push this into a Cold War area. The big unknown here is if he's on borrowed time with an illness he has nothing to lose. The diplomatic approach is by far the best response given it's not a good idea to push people, when you don't know how far you can.

Kim Jong Il Re-Elected

Kim Jong Il was unsurprisingly re-elected for a third term as Supreme Leader of North Korea today. I don't think I'm alone when I say congratulations to Kim on all the weight he's lost. I think someone's getting the slimmer of the week award.