Glasgow North East By Election - Result

I lost my bet again, I would usually be humble in defeat, yet given the coverage of what a great victory it was and two losses in a row for me, it's starting to feel like a Brown stealth tax. I think I'll push decorum aside.

It's not a vote of victory for Labour, if they couldn't win that seat they couldn't win anything. A turn out of 33%, the lowest turnout in Scottish by-election history, is voter apathy. Is it really victorious that Labour voters are sitting on their hands on mass rather than voting, that's a shinning endorsement of Brown's policies? What wouldn't be then?

When you take into account apathy it's not a good sign for South of the boarder and it's English seats that win elections, as they account for the largest proportion of them. If they can't mobilise their voters in Scotland, in effect their heartlands, that doesn't bode well for England.

Another Bet - Glasgow North East By-Election

In an attempt to turn around my betting fortunes my eye has turned to the Glasgow North East by-election, set for 12th November.

The seat

It's the former Commons Speaker Michael Martin's, who stood down disgraced and considerably more well off. In an area that has a high rate of poverty opinions are mixed, some having empathy for a local man saying he was a set-up, others that he's a greedy haggis.

The contenders

This seat is really a run off between Labour and the SNP. The other parties will take a vote share but this is essentially a show down between parties.

The outsider of interest is John Smeaton, who is one of the men who helped foil the Glasgow Airport terror attack. He standing as an independent for the Jury Team on a clean up politics ticket, he has a good back story and creditability. So he's likely to take some of the protest vote, something that the SNP would normally have to themselves.

The result

Michael Martin won the seat originally with a 10,00 majority, it's considered a rock solid Labour seat. Yet Labour dragged their feet over setting a by-election date, leaving the area without a MP for almost six months. Something the SNP are already exploiting to there advantage as "Labour's arrogance".

The SNP did win the Glasgow East seat right next door, which faces the same problems, yet they already had a foot in the door with the seats on the council. They also have to defend their government record as Labour will.

So in keeping with my betting on something that embarrasses the government, I'm going to bet on the SNP winning by a small majority, as I don't think Labour have done enough to keep hold of their core vote.



Update: for those interested in making a bet, the current odds and what bookies you can use can be seen here.

Norwich North By-Election

Looking over the voting figures for Norwich North the most eye catching is UKIP's result, mainly because it's puzzling. Is the EU issue a bigger one than is being assumed? There are other possible reasons for the vote, a protest, still too soon after the EU election. Yet something doesn't seem right about it, UKIP's national policies are perceived as being singularly focused on the EU, with all it entails; immigration, budget, federalism etc.

Could we be seeing the stirring of what's in effect happened to New Labour, they moved to the right to increase votes and left behind part of their voting base. Is this the craving for more of the right in politics? It could of course diffuse when Labour are out of power, yet if it doesn't New Conservatism has the potential to do the damage New Labour did.