The Lisbon Treaty - What Now?

Following on from by betting post, the Irish have voted "yes" to the Lisbon Treaty, I bet on a "no" vote. My Mum always said to be humble in defeat, humble is not quite what I'm feeling right now after loosing money. Yet what's important is what happens now for Europe, what the treaty means for Britain and the EU. In the interests of disclosure, I'm not anti EU but pro EU with reform, I don't feel the Lisbon Treaty as it stands reforms the EU, it's just another layer of complicated legislation and management.

Ireland now having ratified the treaty means there's only two countries left to do so, Czech Republic and Poland, they are expected to say yes and ratify by December. The purpose of the Lisbon Treaty is to replace previous treaties and streamline EU institutions. It does this by creating an European Commission, which will have an EU president, named by the EU governments and an EU foreign minister will take office along side the president*. This is where is starts to particularly effect Britain.

The name of the person thought to be the EU president in waiting is, Tony Blair. It's difficult to know if the British media are scaremongering or if he's really in the running, as opinion of him is hard to gauge across Europe. Some people though would argue that this good for British interest in the EU, I however would argue that Blair has never been good for British interest, anywhere.

It also has a national effect in that the Tories policy was to offer a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, if it's not in force by the election, it's unlikely referendum will be forthcoming under the circumstances. For David Cameron though this could become a much bigger issue, Euro-scepticism is a really divisive issue within the Tory party and among it's supporters. He has to keep the kettle from boiling over, the referendum was a good way to achieve that. Thus he may have trouble ahead.

For Europe at large the Lisbon treaty expands the EU's justice and police decisions it also creates a rights charter for things such as freedom of speech, religion etc, both of these Britain has opted out of. Which means such legislation will not have a direct effect, though in reality given how interlinked each country is, it's bound to have an indirect effect.

Consequently the Lisbon treaty will mainly in Britain, entrench peoples views and stir up resentment, it will be a centre point of rage for Euro-sceptics. Something that will have to be addressed at some point, I doubt our current government will be the one to do so though.



* For more details the BBC have a handy Q&A page here.

Norwich North By-Election

Looking over the voting figures for Norwich North the most eye catching is UKIP's result, mainly because it's puzzling. Is the EU issue a bigger one than is being assumed? There are other possible reasons for the vote, a protest, still too soon after the EU election. Yet something doesn't seem right about it, UKIP's national policies are perceived as being singularly focused on the EU, with all it entails; immigration, budget, federalism etc.

Could we be seeing the stirring of what's in effect happened to New Labour, they moved to the right to increase votes and left behind part of their voting base. Is this the craving for more of the right in politics? It could of course diffuse when Labour are out of power, yet if it doesn't New Conservatism has the potential to do the damage New Labour did.

Blair for President of Europe?

Baroness Kinnock and the British government are backing Blair for the possible EU presidency. Like every EU leader they're acting like the Lisbon Treaty is already a done deal. I guess you should never let democracy get in the way of ambition.

But is Blair in the running? President Sarkozy was a Blair backer, though Germany have never been keen and they are the leaders that will have the most say. Yet there are other factors at play here, they risk alienating Britain further by supporting him. EU scepticism is already going to be an issue the moment Britain gets a vote on any EU treaty. With the strong possibility of a Euro-sceptic government being elected, they will want to be political in their choice, as it could hamper future treaties.

Blair also carries a lot of baggage, he doesn't have the all clear politically. If he becomes EU President they risk associating and tarnishing the EU with it. He will also be seen as a back door for American involvement in Europe, that has always been a contentious issue. Stirrings of it were seen at the G20 with references to those "Anglo-Saxons" from Sarkozy and Obama being shot down for voicing support for Turkey's EU membership.

Thus I don't think he is in the running for people other than his supporters here in Britain and papers that like to participate in scaremongering. Too many factors have changed since he left office, politically he is a terrible choice and a potential liability.

Griffin Get Tough on Immigrants-Sink Their Boats

What's next throw in some chum?

Conservatives and Their New EU Group

Cameron has fulfilled his pledge to create a new anti-federalist group in the EU, it's called the "European Conservatives and Reformists group". Much will be made of the members that make up this bloc, other parties are calling them homophobic, anti-German etc. Yet the EU has become like an "Eurovision Political Contest". All groups have questionable MEPs, so I wouldn't take issue with that, unless they were really crazy or hateful by EU standards. What I would take issue with is the politics.

The group the Tories left was the EEP, it has members from Angela Merkel, Nicolas Sarkozy and Silvio Berlusconi political parties. This is where the main problem lies, not only as he snubbed them, he has removed himself from the group with the biggest influence in the EU. The gamble he's making is that his group gains momentum and influence. Otherwise they'll be left looking like a nutty fringe group that the EU leaders just dismiss at best, at worst he makes Britain that nutty fringe group.

Which is a big risk, one of the most important aspects to the EU is successfully promoting British interests, whether we like it or not globalisation isn't just going to stop and retract. It's better to put ourself in a strong position and gain from it. Yet what he's doing in some respects does make sense in Britain, having a reform opposition within the EU is a good idea, as rather than reducing the argument to 'pro' or 'anti' EU it's a middle ground. Given that anti EU sentiment won't be drawing back any time soon either, he may of found a compromise, if he pulls it off in both Britain and the EU. Though that's a big "if".

Euro Election Results

The EU results can only be described as historically a disastrous and humiliating result for Labour, with a collapse in there heartlands and a lashing from all over the UK. The BNP picked up two seats from them, which means not only will fascists be sitting in the EU, but they now have money to fund them and a platform to speak from. Which is very disheartening, it shouldn't take their election to question why they are getting votes or to challenge them.

Conservative increased their overall vote share by only 1%, though historically won the national vote in Wales, the last time Labour lost an election there was 1918. Just the thought of the popular vote in Wales being for the Tories is incredible enough. In Scotland the SNP just as historically beat Labour by 8%. This leaves Labour second in Scotland and Wales, third in England.

We do seem to be getting into an area of anything but Labour voting. Though the EU results aren't so easy to compare to a general election, given it's viewed in a slightly different way and uses proportional representation. The EU vote has increasing become a referendum on Europe, in the absence of being given one, hence UKIP's high vote and most likely Lib Dems low vote, as they're pro EU. UKIP's success won't translate into a national election, given that people are less likely to vote for smaller parties. So where will those votes go?

A large amount of UKIP's voters are likely to be Tory leaning, given their stance now isn't complete removal from the EU, so that could translate to a large vote share for them. The Green EU support is most likely to move to Lib Dems, which still won't see a lot of votes for them, they really need to start putting up a fight to eat into Labours vote share.

The council elections were a good result for the Conservatives, yet they need more than that to win a majority, they need a landslide. For Cameron to win that landslide he has to convince people, not just focus on peoples dislike for Labour.

However much Labour try to spin this in their uniform voice repeating the party line, over and over again. This was a vote against them through action and inaction, which in the end may be what gives Cameron the landslide he needs, their inability to listen.

June the Forth be With You

I know apathy, cynicism and anger is ripe, but your vote is the one thing parliament can not ignore. Whether it's for issues that are important to you, a protest, tactical, anti EU or pro EU, speak up and use you vote!

For those still unsure who to vote for I gathered pledges together here. For those that want to tactically vote current polls are:

Conservative - 26%(-1)
UKIP - 18%(+2)
Labour - 16%(-1)
Lib Dems - 15%(nc)
Green - 10%(+1)
BNP - 5%(-2)

It's going to be a close call for third place, so clearly influencing the third place vote or enforcing second place, is the best tactical vote to make depending on your EU views and the area you live.

Three Days to EU Election - What a Debate It Was

So glad the political parties have gone out of their way to inform everyone about their policies and what a debate it's been, so much fun was had by all. I've had 6 leaflets through the post and no one knock on the door. Which really disappoints me I was looking forward to talking to a politician, so I'm left thinking what did I learn from these leaflets?

From the Tories you would think it was a general election rather than an EU one. Labours looked like a BNP leaflet. The BNP's looked like a pizza menu, I almost ordered an immigrate by mistake. Lib Dems really should go to another graphic design company, the Greens are very green in both sense of the word and Churchill would vote UKIP.

All ready to vote then.

My EU Vote is For

After much consideration, I've decided to vote Green Party at the EU election. Given that many people will like me be feeling disillusioned and at a loss as to who to vote for. I want to give a run down of my reasoning. It may be of assistance to those at a complete dead end, yet I do stress conclude whatever party you like, it's your vote.

I can't bring myself to vote for a main party, until they get the House of Commons in order I will not vote for them. A bad result for all the main parties strongly enforces the "get your act together" message. Given the ballot box has unfortunately become the only thing they will listen and take note of, I will use it to do just that. Hopefully if the results are particularly bad we may get the election this year, the thought of 12 more months of sleazy headlines week after week, no leadership and this ridiculous ability Brown has of burying his head in the sand, is verging on unbearable.

My personal views on the EU are also a part of the reason, the biggest issue I have with the EU is the lack of accountability and the way it's run, there needs to be a clear line drawn as to what's a national and international issue. Given leaving the EU or fully embracing it isn't on the cards, with the main parties that can make that decision, reform is important. I played with the idea of voting UKIP as it would send the message that the EU isn't working in it's present form, yet I feel UKIP will most likely get a lot of votes from general Euroscepticism and protest, I'm not completely comfortable voting in just an Eurosceptic way. Libertas were also a consideration as it's a reform party, but they will be voting on all laws and they've not made clear their ideology or perhaps today they did.

That's why I've concluded the Greens, one of the pros to the EU for me is the cross boarders policy of tackling environmental issues, the Greens are pushing basically for creating a sustainable way to live. This combined with wanting reform, sorting out the EU gravy train, standing up for civil liberties/rights and they're against the Euro, which means I get a bit of everything that's important to me.

Nationalism In The EU Elections

There's an informative article on the Huffington Post. About an uprising of anti EU and nationalist candidates standing for the forthcoming EU election. There is quite a wave of hostility being directed at the EU from all over Europe. Along with an opportunity seen by nationalist parties to cash in on disillusionment and fear. With a lot of talk about BNP gaining seats it worth putting it in context as their election could have a bigger effect.

Elected party members form international groups within the EU, in order to wield influence effectively. 28 is the minimum number of MEPs needed to form a political grouping. If nationalist get 28 seats from all across the EU, that's more power than we should free comfortable with them having. As the article rightly points out, if the Lisbon Treaty is passed they could wield real influence over justice, immigration and foreign policy.

Some MEPs dismiss nationalists as being disorganised, yet clearly there is a reason why Nick Griffin of the BNP is making his move now. The Daily Mail have an article on Austria’s Freedom Party (FPO) and their links with the BNP, Nick Griffin sent a personal message to the FPO after their election win in September 2008.

We in Britain are impressed to see that you have been able to combine principled nationalism with electoral success. We are sure that this gives you a good springboard for the European elections and we hope very much that we will be able to join you in a successful nationalist block in Brussels next year.

The FPO themselves have the support of Herbert Schweiger a former SS officer and Nazi, who said:

Our time is coming again and soon we will have another leader like Hitler

The issues that anger seems to be building upon is firstly the Franco-German team have too strong an influence on the EU model, their vice like grip means other countries then fall into the hierarchy of those that have the loudest voice. This combined with the EU parliament being considered a gravy train and very remote. Clearly for many this makes the EU a waste of time and money.

Fear is also big diver, troubled economic times does lend itself well to stoking the fire of fear. When you're afraid or uncertain it stands to reason you'll want to protect yourself, self-preservation is a powerful driver. Nationalism is perceived as a way to do that, if of course you belong to the group nationalist want to protect.

In Britain with the expense saga we have the added factor of a protest vote. Putting a cross next to the BNPs name is the biggest protest to make. That I'm sure for many will make it appealing. Yet with EU elections a vote isn't just for the BNP, it's also for all the people that form the group they will belong to, the FPO have a Nazi seal of approval.

Which takes the EU full circle, the very beginnings of it are from the idea of "never again". The principle was to overcome nationalism that had dragged Europe into war and conflict, by creating an united and peaceful Europe. It's incredible that in the place that is meant to be an embodiment of that, nationalist parties stand to take seats. Given their laws effect us all in Europe, it shouldn't take divisive nationalists sitting in parliament to reflect on reform. Nor should we in Britain, however angry or frustrated anyone may be, consider a vote for that kind of nationalism a legitimate protest to make.

Eurovision Song Contest: 2009

Congratulations to Norway! Nice to see the Eurovision is back to being a song contest, with Norway's entry winning by a landslide. Lord Webber and Jade Ewen's hard work put us at number 5, instead of getting just getting "nul points". Graham Norton took over from Sir Terry's commentary and didn't disappoint, very enjoyable.

The best performance for me was Ukraine's entry, that was some crazy camped up action. Germany's entry had Dita von Teese* in their performance, yet it was the lead singers skin tight, shiny sliver trousers that stole the show, I thought at one point I might have an epileptic fit the way the light danced off them. France's entry couldn't be any more "French", or depressing, I'm glad I wasn't wearing laced shoes. Best part however as I am a little geeky, was they linked live to the International Space Station to launch voting.

It was a bit disappointing that production values were so high with the acts, rather than campy, yet given Mother Russia's earlier actions on campness, I'm not surprised. The biggest curiosity that hangs over it all though, is when did Russia or Israel become apart of Europe? Must of missed that.


* She's well known America burlesque dancer, famous for her giant Martini glass routine.

Voter Intentions Post Expense

Conservative - 41% (-2)
Labour - 22% (-5)
Lib Dems - 19 (+1)
Others - 18% (see how that breaks down)

That's the lowest Labour have been since records began. Anthony Wells at UK Polling says about this result:

It is worth considering that YouGov normally give the Liberal Democrats their lowest ratings - if this poll had been carried out by ICM we might very well be looking at a poll with Labour in third place.

The European voting intentions are very interesting to:

Conservative - 29% (-7)
Labour - 20% (-5)
Lib Dems - 19% (-1)
UKIP - 15% (+8)
Green - 6% (+2)
BNP - 3% (-1)
SNP/PC- 4% (nc)

I'm basing swing calculations on what I believe is YouGov's last poll. Either way it's a big swing towards UKIP, BNP haven't benefited from the expense saga as of yet.

EU Franco-German Warning to Cameron

It's comments like this from the Franco-German leaders that really harm the EU, Chancellor Merkel said, with regard to withdrawing support from the Conservatives:

France and Germany are the engine of Europe. We refuse to stretch out our hand to those who oppose the Lisbon Treaty but who at the same time talk about enlargement, those who want more have to cooperate. (read article)

It's a shame democracy is so burdensome to them. Given that Britain did not get a chance to vote on the EU in it's present form. I don't take an Eurosceptic position on the EU, though I do want a chance to have a vote on the EUs change in role. It is not democratic to do otherwise.

Rather than the Franco-German leaders complaining about other countries positions, they should look towards getting the basics in the EU working first. Starting with corruption and expenses, then addressing the issue of whether all countries are equal or if some are more equal than others, as their warnings suggest. The EU can not work like that, such a position will just feed Euroscepticism.

Not to mention they really should be more concerned with creating a President of Europe position, with Tony Blairs name in the running.

European Elections 2009 - Party Pledges

I got my polling card through for the forthcoming EU elections, spurring me into researching the parties standing. Which has been surprisingly difficult just to find a list of who's involved. I did come across a good website in my search for information, EU Profiler, you answer a few questions and it charts your position against the main EU parties.

I've gathered together the information I did find with regard to the key party pledges, in alphabetical order:

• BNP - Opposed to the Euro, wants withdrawal from the European Union, greater national self-sufficiency, promote trading ties with Australia, Canada and New Zealand.
  

• Conservatives - If the Lisbon Treaty is not yet in force they will give a referendum on it, amend the 1972 European Communities Act so that any future EU Treaty would be subject to a referendum, opposed to the Euro, do not want to withdraw from the EU.
  

• English Democrats - Referendum on whether to stay in the EU, though they are committed to keeping free trade arrangements by rejoining the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), opposed to the Euro.

• Green Party - Invest in tackling climate change and renewable energy resources, opposed to the Euro, supports the EU membership though wants more accountability and reform within it.

• Labour - Does not want to withdraw from the EU, wants further enlargement of the EU i.e Turkey to join, invest in tackling climate change, work to liberalise world trade.

• Lib Dems - Focus on environmental policies, agricultural expenditure, completion of the Single Market, supports the EU membership though wants more accountability and reform with in EU.
  

• Libertas - Supports the EU membership though wants to reform the EU, stop the waste, corruption, return control to the member nations. They have candidates standing in all 27 countries.
  

• No2EU - Keep Britain out of the Eurozone, reject the Lisbon Treaty, protect the rights of British workers, defend and develop manufacturing, agriculture and fishing industries.
  

• Plaid Cymru - Does not want to withdraw from the EU, wants Wales to achieve full membership as a member-state of the EU, wants a more accountable EU.
  

• SNP - Referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, wants Scotland to achieve full membership as a member-state of the EU, fisheries under national control.

• The Jury Team - Referendum on the EU, take a strong line on corruption and sleaze in the EU.
  

• UKIP - Opposed to the Euro, wants withdrawal from the European Union to revert back to European Economic Community, no to green policy taxes.
  

• UK First party - Replace Britain’s membership of the EU with a Free Trade agreement, review all EU-imposed legislation scrapping anything that is not in Britain’s interest.
  

This is to the best of my knowledge the English, Welsh and Scottish parties standing, I couldn't find much information on Northern Ireland ones. Hopefully more information will be forthcoming nearer the election, it's pretty non-existent at the moment.

Further information on your current MEP can been found on the EU website.

Update: The BBC have a handy election page up now. Which covers all parties campaigning and news, you can view it here.

Update 2: Another handy website - Vote Match answer questions to see how you compare to political parties.

BNP EU Elections

Harriet Harman has said that "Labour is facing its biggest threat from the BNP" at the forthcoming EU elections. I was out today at a shopping centre in my local area, the BNP were there handing out leaflets, campaigning and talking to people. Generally where I live votes Conservative, and given the interest the BNP were creating today, I would say that threat doesn't just apply to Labour. Conservatives taking a less Euro-sceptic or not clearly stating their position on the EU, are in danger of pushing people into voting BNP out of protest.

This obsession political parties have with the internet after Obama's success, are missing the point. Yes it's a great way to get information to people, but you're not going to get people to click on a link if you don't generate interest in doing so. That's why Obama's on line campaign was successful, but it wasn't internet based alone. He went out and spoke to people, along with thousands of people phoning and campaigning on his behalf.

If political parties don't go out and talk to people, they're just giving votes to the BNP. People will think at least they're taking an interest in my local area, worries and in me, which is what I saw today.

Inmates To Get Voting Rights

Though I do find the thought of politicians having to campaign in prisons entertaining. I'm mostly left just bemused by how can it be OK to take away the right of freedom, yet not the right to free election while in prison? Heaven forbidden being a convicted rapist means you miss an opportunity to vote.

This law does underline a growing problem with our legal system. Lady Justice's blindfold is starting to feel like it indicates blindness, not impartial justice. The balance between victim and convict has started to tilt in a way that doesn't seem right, fair or just.

The larger problem is this tug of war between Westminster and Strasbourg. Something will have to give, as it throws such confusion on the issue, who's in charge? What laws do we follow? What laws apply to us? Who makes these laws? This is increasingly becoming an unworkable situation, particularly when people's trust is being eroded.

It would be nice to think that perhaps in being forced into making this law, Labour will consider not just signing anything the EU puts in front of them in future. As I don't hold any hope that they have the backbone needed to stand up to the EU, or attempt the reform so badly needed.

BNP Put Jesus On A Poster

The BNP have launched another baiting campaign, this time rather than Churchill, Jesus is on their posters. With the quote "If they have persecuted me, they will also persecute you. What would Jesus do?" Indeed what would Jesus do? Wash their feet? I don't imagine he would vote BNP as they suggest. The plus side to this advert is it just makes them look loony. They were starting to tone down the racist, bigot, martyrs message, which was making people listen.

I live in an area where the BNP gets a lot of votes. Though I could never vote for them personally, I understand why some people do. There's a presumption that it's about racism, and though for some it is, for most people it's a protest vote. They don't see the main parties addressing the taboo issue of immigration, giving people a choice on the EU and because Labour has moved so far away from their core voters, the BNP moved in to fill that void.

Until some of those points are addressed, the BNP will continue to gain votes off the back of people frustrations. Leaving it quite possible that they'll win a seat at the EU elections, and dare I say, given how frustrated people are getting, the general election.

Looks like Brown should have gone to Europe

While jet setting in South America, a Berlin magazine “obtained” and published the draft agreement Brown hopes to secure at the G20. It stated that he wanted a “$2 trillion” global fiscal stimulus. The Czech Republic, France and Spain's leaders have joined together to echo the comment, nein Herr Brown.

I'm no economist but do think they have a valid point being cautious and stopping to look at the cause of the problem. In Britain financial services alone make up almost a third our GDP. Good business is spreading the risk. Yet we can't compete globally with our exports industry and we've got so few farms left now, we're not even self sufficient.

That leaves the city (ironically) to be the one to get us back on track. Bankers can't make the money needed while being handcuffed, at the same time no regulation is like putting foxes in charge of the hen house. A balance needs to be struck with protecting people, regulating credit, spreading the risk by investing in other industries and I think we can all agree getting a better monitoring service.

Is there a problem more fundamental though, as how can you restore the economy when people don't have confidence in it? People will hold on to their money while they believe there is no light at the end of the tunnel, survival instincts will just kick in. Brown is part of that problem, he is too synonymous with the cause for people to believe he can fix it. 30 years after James Callaghan's vote of no confidence, is it time for someone in parliament to act on what people think.

EU Warmly Welcomes Gordon Brown

On the off chance you haven't seen this yet, or just for a repeat viewing here's Daniel Hannan being nautical.



Also Nigel Farage letting off steam.

It would be far more entertaining if Westminster was more like that.