Brown - Winston Churchill?

Benedict Brogan writes in his article on the holiday reading of Cameron and Brown:

Mr Brown is currently obsessed with Winston Churchill, and how to avoid his fate. Those around the Prime Minister describe how he is preoccupied by the idea of a war-time leader who guided the nation to safety through dark times, only to be thanked with a thumping defeat.

Indeed, never in the field of human economics, was so much money owed, by so many, because of so few.

Kim Jong II Names Successor

Following on from my other posts on North Korea. It's being reported that Kim Jong Un has been named to succeed his father. He is Kim Jong's youngest son, little is known about him other than he was schooled in Switzerland, has a military background, seems to be slightly more Western interested, though not as much as his older brother who was thought to be successor and he's a heavy drinker. Which is slightly worrying.

Atsuhito Isozaki, assistant professor of North Korean politics said:

Before 2012, North Korea must convince the army and the public that Jong Un is the best successor. To pave the way for Jong Un's leadership, it is highly likely that North Korea will turn recent nuclear and missile tests into his achievements.

It's an original campaign, different from a leaflet through the post.

They'll Have to Drag Brown Kicking

Brown has rejected calls to quit saying he wasn't "arrogant" or "unwilling to listen" but:

I think the cleaning up of the political system is best done by someone who has got a clear idea of what needs to be done - and I have.

Certainly a statement that proves his point, even if 69% of people would disagree. Yet what's his proposal to clean up the system, "major constitutional reform" to gain back public trust. That doesn't of course include what people actually want; honesty, transparency and having an election. The man is like an Imperial Leather sticker on a bar of soap, they'll have to drag him kicking and screaming from Downing Street.

Yet does hope lay in the Westminster whispers of mutiny within Labour? Is there really a leadership challenge gaining favour, in effect what happened to Thatcher. Labours main problem is that Thatcher was elected, Brown is already the non elected second switch, it could be prove a push too far switching again. They would have to call an election straight away to legitimise it, yet a new leader would need time to make a mark and repair some of the damage Brown has done, otherwise there's not much point.

Perhaps the Royal Mail debate and vote will prove temping for conspirators to hijack. More than 150 Labour MPs are rebelling against the plans, before taking into account election results and mutiny. The Tories are backing the bill though it would be a very close vote and if Brown lost, a motion of confidence could be called or a legitimate leadership challenge. Though Mandelson has already hinted the showdown could be delayed, it would have been a few days after the elections.

Even with all the headlines and debate surrounding this mutiny, I don't really see a Labour back or front bencher doing it. The current climate is what will protect Brown, voters need to know who will be standing in the election, they need to get parliament in order. Which is why Brown is now singing the tune of reform, and why no doubt he'll drag his feet, if it was just the economy he would not be safe. Labours best option is to trigger an election a little later this year, as that's the only thing they can do that will have a lot of public support. Going 12 months would be political suicide.

North Korea - Nuclear Test

Great the nutter has a nuke, Kim Jong II has tested a nuclear weapon. From the data they have on the test, it's an explosion of up to 20 kilotons, which is comparable to the American bombs that destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki. He followed this up today with firing short range missiles into the Sea of Japan.

What's worrying is how volatile the situation and he is, it leaves the international community treading on egg shells. Military action seems very unlikely, given he clearly has weapons and is mad enough to use them. Sanctions have largely been by passed or only effected civilians, no doubt allowing Kim Jong to use it as propaganda. Diplomacy and negotiations to date have only gone so far, before Kim Jong withdraws and does something like this.

The international community response seems to still be the diplomatic one, though Obama is pushing for the one voice together approach. He and the UN/EU may be a good position now to really put pressure on China to include there voice among everyone else's. Their main tactic however may just be trying to keep a lid on it in order to wait out Kim Jong, given he clearly doesn't look well. His son Kim Jong Nam will inherit his position, he seems to be slightly less unstable, and could prove to be open to negotiations.

Kim Jong typically makes a point and steps down from his hostile position, though with a powerful nuclear weapon in the situation, it could push this into a Cold War area. The big unknown here is if he's on borrowed time with an illness he has nothing to lose. The diplomatic approach is by far the best response given it's not a good idea to push people, when you don't know how far you can.

Kim Jong Il Re-Elected

Kim Jong Il was unsurprisingly re-elected for a third term as Supreme Leader of North Korea today. I don't think I'm alone when I say congratulations to Kim on all the weight he's lost. I think someone's getting the slimmer of the week award.