Gordon Brown Has Gone - Cameron Next PM

So Britain has a Lib - Con government and David Cameron as Prime Minster. I've held off posting as I wanted to see the terms of this coalition before writing about it, as they say the devil is in the detail.

Reading through it, I'm quite surprised by how much the Tories have compromised, though a few obligatory and traditional Tory policies. It is a fair balance between the two manifestos. I'm certainly very happy with the civil liberties section, would be happier still, if David Davies was Home Secretary rather than Theresa May, yet I feel fairly comfortable that any illiberal views she may have, won't be supported by this coalition. Most surprising though is how amicable it all seems, perhaps I've gotten too used to seeing politicians squabbling like children.

Yet does this deal mark more than the first between the two parties, does it mark the decline of the Labour Party? If they do pull this off, the Tories could shed the nasty party image, they could move out of the shadow of Thatcher, the Lib Dems will have time in office and a higher profile from that. So where does that leave Labour?

As I watched 13 years of New Labour draw to a close yesterday, I felt a mix of feelings - relief, joyful, happy, elated and a little shocked. Yet I do feel a sense of apprehension about what lays in front of us. I'm certainly not over joyed with Cameron as PM, yet I hope the sting of a Tory government will be damped by the Lib Dems. Only time will time however just who's interest they have and really what kind of government they are. Watching Clegg's speech today though, I admit, a smile crept across my face and a sense of hope I haven't felt about politics in a long time surfaced, just a little though.

After The Election

I've been looking over the results to find some sort of pattern to them, there are some striking wins and swings. It seems an election fought very much on local and MP issues/expenses. There's little pattern to it outside of that, other than it being clear everyone lost, but some more so than others. A few big Labour names have gone - Jacqui Smith and Charles Clarke. Caroline Lucas, a Green MP makes a welcome addition to parliament. But most striking for me is how much divergence there is between the vote share and seat numbers:

Tories 36% of vote, 49% of the seats
Labour 29% of vote, 42 % of the seats
Lib Dem; 23% of vote, 9% of the seats

That is ridiculous. They speak of making parliament representative of the public with regard to gender and ethnicity. What about getting the basics right first, just simply reflecting how people vote.

Cameron is asking the Lib Dems to form a coalition with him, so far talks seem amicable and I would even go so far to say mature. I hope that it develops into something productive. As democratic and stable won't be a coalition between Labour and the Lib Dems, it will need to also include the nationalist parties, and what will there support cost? Ring fencing national budgets, leaving the UK in a position where England will be the only part of the country filling the black hole of debt. Not too mention it leaves Gordon Brown clinging to power by the fingernails he doesn’t have. That isn't workable.

Though I understand the reluctance/hostility/distrust both the Lib Dems and Tories feel towards this coalition. This is the hand that's been dealt and though there is a lot of difference between the two parties on social issues, there is overlap with regard to civil liberties, the role of the state, economy and the environment. It can only be a good thing for Britain that the Tories have the social conscience of the Lib Dems.

Election Night!

I'm seated on my sofa, surrounded by M&M's, crisps and ginger beer, tucked up in my duvet with a laptop and ashtray within easy reach. For ease I'll be updating this post, up until my snacks run out.

So far the exit poll predicts the Tories with the most seats in a hung parliament and the Lib Dems having less seats than the last election - Con 305 Lab 255 Lib 61 Others 29 - I can't see that being right. Party because it goes in the face of the polls, but also from what I'm hearing on the news about different seats across England, it sounds like people have been tactically voting on a large scale. What enforces this idea for me is, the polling stations that have been having a problems with voting are in Lib Dem and Labour constituencies.

Update 1:15ish - The seats declared so far have been largely Labour safe seats, they show a swing to the Tories of 8-10%. These are rock solid Labour seats in the North of England. The Tories making inroads should really worry Labour. That percentage has also been echoed in Lab - Con marginals, the first Lib - Con marginal shows no gain in vote for the Tories. The results on Lab - Lib marginals will hopefully start to show what's happening to the Lib Dem vote.

Update 1:30ish - A lot of talk about Labour forming a coalition with Lib Dems. That is incredible from Labour, Brown didn't face an election in 2005, he didn't face an election to be party leader and then in the face of election defeat, they're talking about holding on to power with an even smaller mandate. I truly hope Lib Dems don't entertain this nonsense.

Update 2:40ish - Lembit Opik has lost his seat to the Tories, wouldn't have guess that happening, his seat was one of the safest. Tories are making gains off Labour, the pattern to the swing however is strange at the moment. It could be just once in the polling station people placed their vote for one of the two main parties.

My snacks have almost all been eaten, so I'm off to bed, see what tomorrow holds.

Euro Election Results

The EU results can only be described as historically a disastrous and humiliating result for Labour, with a collapse in there heartlands and a lashing from all over the UK. The BNP picked up two seats from them, which means not only will fascists be sitting in the EU, but they now have money to fund them and a platform to speak from. Which is very disheartening, it shouldn't take their election to question why they are getting votes or to challenge them.

Conservative increased their overall vote share by only 1%, though historically won the national vote in Wales, the last time Labour lost an election there was 1918. Just the thought of the popular vote in Wales being for the Tories is incredible enough. In Scotland the SNP just as historically beat Labour by 8%. This leaves Labour second in Scotland and Wales, third in England.

We do seem to be getting into an area of anything but Labour voting. Though the EU results aren't so easy to compare to a general election, given it's viewed in a slightly different way and uses proportional representation. The EU vote has increasing become a referendum on Europe, in the absence of being given one, hence UKIP's high vote and most likely Lib Dems low vote, as they're pro EU. UKIP's success won't translate into a national election, given that people are less likely to vote for smaller parties. So where will those votes go?

A large amount of UKIP's voters are likely to be Tory leaning, given their stance now isn't complete removal from the EU, so that could translate to a large vote share for them. The Green EU support is most likely to move to Lib Dems, which still won't see a lot of votes for them, they really need to start putting up a fight to eat into Labours vote share.

The council elections were a good result for the Conservatives, yet they need more than that to win a majority, they need a landslide. For Cameron to win that landslide he has to convince people, not just focus on peoples dislike for Labour.

However much Labour try to spin this in their uniform voice repeating the party line, over and over again. This was a vote against them through action and inaction, which in the end may be what gives Cameron the landslide he needs, their inability to listen.