And So We Wait . . . ..

Gordon Brown To Resign

Gordon Brown has announced he will resign as Labour leader, I, as I'm sure many will rejoice the era of Brown and Blair has gone. That is after all the back stabbing, the leader contest will bring. Yet in resigning Brown has lit the fuse to talks between the Lib Dems and Labour. I truly hope the Lib Dems don't cut off their nose to spite their face. As this looks like it's descending into chaos - no one knows who will be the next leader of the Labour party, yet again they will be "unelected" and to save us from the instability of a minority government, they will give us a minority coalition.

Oh well, let's just savour the moment. Gordon Brown is being thrown to the back benches of good bye political career, so long and thanks for all the fish.

After The Election

I've been looking over the results to find some sort of pattern to them, there are some striking wins and swings. It seems an election fought very much on local and MP issues/expenses. There's little pattern to it outside of that, other than it being clear everyone lost, but some more so than others. A few big Labour names have gone - Jacqui Smith and Charles Clarke. Caroline Lucas, a Green MP makes a welcome addition to parliament. But most striking for me is how much divergence there is between the vote share and seat numbers:

Tories 36% of vote, 49% of the seats
Labour 29% of vote, 42 % of the seats
Lib Dem; 23% of vote, 9% of the seats

That is ridiculous. They speak of making parliament representative of the public with regard to gender and ethnicity. What about getting the basics right first, just simply reflecting how people vote.

Cameron is asking the Lib Dems to form a coalition with him, so far talks seem amicable and I would even go so far to say mature. I hope that it develops into something productive. As democratic and stable won't be a coalition between Labour and the Lib Dems, it will need to also include the nationalist parties, and what will there support cost? Ring fencing national budgets, leaving the UK in a position where England will be the only part of the country filling the black hole of debt. Not too mention it leaves Gordon Brown clinging to power by the fingernails he doesn’t have. That isn't workable.

Though I understand the reluctance/hostility/distrust both the Lib Dems and Tories feel towards this coalition. This is the hand that's been dealt and though there is a lot of difference between the two parties on social issues, there is overlap with regard to civil liberties, the role of the state, economy and the environment. It can only be a good thing for Britain that the Tories have the social conscience of the Lib Dems.

Election Night!

I'm seated on my sofa, surrounded by M&M's, crisps and ginger beer, tucked up in my duvet with a laptop and ashtray within easy reach. For ease I'll be updating this post, up until my snacks run out.

So far the exit poll predicts the Tories with the most seats in a hung parliament and the Lib Dems having less seats than the last election - Con 305 Lab 255 Lib 61 Others 29 - I can't see that being right. Party because it goes in the face of the polls, but also from what I'm hearing on the news about different seats across England, it sounds like people have been tactically voting on a large scale. What enforces this idea for me is, the polling stations that have been having a problems with voting are in Lib Dem and Labour constituencies.

Update 1:15ish - The seats declared so far have been largely Labour safe seats, they show a swing to the Tories of 8-10%. These are rock solid Labour seats in the North of England. The Tories making inroads should really worry Labour. That percentage has also been echoed in Lab - Con marginals, the first Lib - Con marginal shows no gain in vote for the Tories. The results on Lab - Lib marginals will hopefully start to show what's happening to the Lib Dem vote.

Update 1:30ish - A lot of talk about Labour forming a coalition with Lib Dems. That is incredible from Labour, Brown didn't face an election in 2005, he didn't face an election to be party leader and then in the face of election defeat, they're talking about holding on to power with an even smaller mandate. I truly hope Lib Dems don't entertain this nonsense.

Update 2:40ish - Lembit Opik has lost his seat to the Tories, wouldn't have guess that happening, his seat was one of the safest. Tories are making gains off Labour, the pattern to the swing however is strange at the moment. It could be just once in the polling station people placed their vote for one of the two main parties.

My snacks have almost all been eaten, so I'm off to bed, see what tomorrow holds.

My Vote is For

After much thought, I will be voting for Lib Dems on May 6th, even though my constituently leans towards being a Tory safe seat. For me that's always been a problem. The previous MP just took it for granted that people would vote Tory and put his feet up in-between elections, in fairness it must have been tiring, after spending large amounts of taxpayers money. Thus my vote will go some way to making this seat less safe and more accountable.

Tactically having the Lib Dems in opposition or working with the Tories, would cover the worries that I have about the Conservatives with regard to social issues, economic unfairness and non progressive policy. Certainly I see it being in my interest as a gay woman, to have a socially liberal party either working to influence the Tories or opposing them. Not because I think the Tories will roll back any gay rights legislation, I don't think they will. More that I doubt such a minority of people will be high on there list of considerations. The religious vote is bigger and more blue rosette wearing.

But more important for me and central to my choice, what a wonderful thing it would be, to show them who's parliament it really is, not Labours or any parties, but the peoples. I gladly place my vote for the change the Lib Dems could bring.

General Election Prediction 2010

It's very difficult to predict this election, polls are like a boat on a stormy sea, moving back and forth, up and down. In some ways it hangs on Labour's core vote being motivated to go out on the 6th. If the bottom drops out of their base vote, much like the EU elections, they could lose very badly indeed. Also the Lib Dem factor here is unknown, though clearly support has risen, will that translate into seats? As the Lib Dems are at a disadvantage to start with, they have the least amount of seats and much ground to cover.

It has become clear that Labour are going to lose, so the question is how badly? On the bases that Labours core vote sits on their hands or protest votes, a Tory win with a small majority of 10 to 20 seats. If they don't, still Tories, but with minority government, so hung parliament. If it's small enough the Tories may form a coalition with the nationalist parties. If not they'll form with the Lib Dems. I don't see the Lib Dems forming a coalition with Labour to keep the Tories out, that wouldn't be very liberal at all.

It's odd for me as someone who isn't an aligned voter, as a tribal political attitude could be what this election hangs on. I have never understood voting for 'X' party out of loyalty. My Father, Grandfather, Great Grandfather (etc) vote was there own, not mine. Which is frustrating, this election result might, just might, lead to the biggest change in British politics for a 100 years. It also be the last Westminster election fought under first-past-the-post. If Labour poll 3rd but get more seats than the Lib Dems or the Tories form a government with less than 40% of the vote, it's hard to see just how there isn't a very strong argument for changing the way we vote.

Yet what stands between that is the question - how loyal will people be?

Bets For The General Election

My betting for this election is centred around a few Ladbrokes specials and constituency winners. They are:

Brighton Pavilion - A seat likely to be the Greens first Westminster win, but I've bet Tory in case the left vote gets split between Labour, Lib Dems and Greens. Tories do have a base vote here which could win out.

Hammersmith - My girlfriends constituency who doesn't like the Tories. So I've bet on a Tory win. Also given the Lib Dems were good odds and my own domestic bliss, I placed a small outsider bet on them too.

Harrow West - The seat next door to Tony "my parents live in my second home" McNulty, only a small swing needed for the Tories to win it. Doubt Labour can keep hold of it, with the bad press/expenses mess etc.

Newcastle East - This could be a close call between Labour and Lib Dems, I'm betting on a Lib Dems gain. Lib Dems are polling well in the North East.

Northampton North - A Lib Dem target seat and if the Lib Dems surge translates to votes, a winnable one. So I've bet on a Lib Dem gain.

1 Cabinet Minster to lose there seat - There are a few former Minsters looking vulnerable - Alistair Darling, Jim Knight and Sadiq Khan. Jim Knight being the most likely to lose his seat.

Lastly Tory Targets Special - How far down this list do you go before finding a seat the Tories will win?

Barking
Hemsworth
Birmingham Hall Green
Cambridge
Scunthorpe
St Ives
Darlington
Ashfield
Wallasey
Sunderland Central
Birmingham Erdington
Norwich South
Hampstead & Kilburn
Brighton Pavilion
Morley & Outwood
Eastleigh
Edinburgh South West
Dagenham & Rainham
Watford
Richmond Park
Luton South
Torbay
Broxtowe
Redditch
Croydon Central

I've bet on the ones in bold. The first certain Tory seat is Broxtowe the others could go Tory as a backlash against Labour. So I've put small bet's on them as a just in case.

I will be spending my winnings on dining out and I will raise a glass to New Labour, how sweet that beer will taste. So fingers crossed.


Update: Forgot to add the bet I placed months ago, Nigel Farage to win the Buckingham seat against the Speaker - John Bercow won't be standing as a Tory candidate in a very conservative area, as he has done before, but as Speaker of the House of Commons. That will be like campaigning with terrible BO and food stuck in your teeth. It's certainly worth a little bet, given it would the biggest one finger salute the public have given parliament in modern history. How could I resit?

Election Week Four - Borish

This week was largely uneventful until a pensioner wielding a set of questions set the media alight, the Lib Dem surge has been capping off over the course of the week, the last Leaders Debate filled in a lot of the time and the Labour party for-filled the promise of substance over style by inviting Peppa Pig to a political launch. Other news bits.

* The Guardian newspaper came out in support of the Lib Dems stating that - "if it had a vote it would be cast enthusiastically for the Liberal Democrats." The significance of this move is adding to the sense that Labour is finished. It's the first time the Guardian have supported anyone other than Labour since 1983.

* Those cutting edge animators for Taiwan news, have created an re-enactment of 'Bigotgate'. Nice touch having the thought bubbles and microphone that looks like a detonator.

* Brown continues to be heckled, the heckler in question protested that: "Mr Brown needs to see real electors, not just hand-picked people." While being promptly removed from the room, how New Labour. Though in fairness if he had been old and unable defend him self they wouldn't have taken it so easy on him.

* Ed Ball's re-election is looking a tough fight. The Ashcroft Tories pounds are making it very difficult for him.

* In light of the Tories talking of withdrawing from Afghanistan there is an interesting article over on the the NY Times. The Pentagon reports on progress there every few months to Congress.

The closing days of the election will be chaotic, with all the parties fighting for attention like demanding children. With Labour polling what must be almost there base vote and Brown visiting Labour safe seats, suggesting that they've pretty much given up and are limiting the damage. The Tories are making inroads in the polls, the question is whether they can capitalise on that.

General Election Party Policy and Voting

For those unsure of how to vote on May 6th, though there are far too many policies for me to summarise them on this blog, the BBC have put together a handy guide to party policies. You can also answer questions about different policies and find a closest vote match at - Vote for policies - which include all the parties rather than just the three main.

If you want to tactically vote - look up the constituently you live in and the likelihood of which party wining it at this election at Election Calculus. Unsure what your constituency is? Look it up at election maps.

Whatever way you choose to place your vote, there are always people to vote for, independents, none of the above parties and of course the three main ones. So use your vote and have your say.

Happy voting!


Update: All the finial polls can be seen over on Political Betting, if anyone would rather tactically vote according what's happening nationally.

Also you can look up your constituency on Wikipedia to see who's standing in advance.

Election Week Three - Chicken and Egg

I've posted this slightly later than intended, as the weather has been so nice and I live in fear of this being the only sunshine we see all year. But last week was dominated by a vindictive backlash against the Lib Dems in the papers, the 2nd debate that was meant to be about international affairs, but ended up very similar to the first debate, scaremongering about hung parliaments and Brown going off the media/public radar. Outside of that.

* David Cameron not only ripped the head off a man in a chicken suit, but he was egged in the street. Campaigning certainly can be a bit of a freak show at times.

* Wonder why Blair has been quiet? Every giant ash cloud of death has a sliver lining, he's stranded in Israel.

* Brown responded to criticism of his election campaign being slow, sluggish and pretty non existent by - inviting an Elvis impersonator to sing "The Wonder of You". Yes, Suspicious Minds will be pushed aside by that stunt. I can't help but think though - Elvis has left the planet, Brown was never on it.

* In light of my lateness of posting a bonus point. What happens in the event of a hung parliament? Anthony Wells over on UK polling has a very interesting post which answers that question.

Polls are mixed at the end of the week. Enforcing the notion that this is going to be a very unpredictable election and a polling roller-coaster right up until votes are cast. Largely because you can't account for people's anger, apathy and distaste with political parties at the moment.

Political Posters - Greens and Tories - Part 4

This is one of a series of posters the Greens have launched along with just about every on-line feature they could think of. Greens have a faction of the budget that Tories and Co have. Yet it really doesn't show. Nice stylish posters with a clear message, that surprisingly isn't negative. Good use of their money.



This was released before the Leaders debate in Manchester. The photo is of Labour minions, as they open the door for their glorious leader, head bowed, eyes downward.

The photo itself is eye rolling and comical. Though it doesn't work as a poster, a better idea would have been an on-line caption contest. It's ideal to spread around the web and mock.



This was released in the South West, a homage to the great cider tax uprising of April'10. Nice pun with the "cider you on", see what they doing there.

Targeted approach to using posters and witty. I don't know the strength of feeling towards cider in the South West, given Labour backed down. It's likely to be a strong poster for that region.



You can't help but be overwhelmed by just how much money the Tories have and are throwing at this election. These posters mark a change in tact since the Lib Dem surge. They're gone for populist policy statements, rather than attacks just on Brown and Labour government record. The picture is of Dave with his shirt sleeves rolled up, he means business, he means to get those lazy job dodges off their asses, no more daytime TV chaps, you won't be able to afford that wide screen TV once Dave has finished with you.

This will no doubt go down well with their core vote and tap into the disenchantment with the welfare state. It's a vote winning statement, yet it does run the risk of starting to look like the same old Tories.



Also just released, one of a series of phone box posters, which is a very different tact to the one above, a bit off brand too. I'm guessing this is attempting to appeal to the fluffy leftie arty types? I would never have guessed it was a Tory poster, which is why it doesn't work.

Labour 3rd - Lib Dems Flying

What a poll.

Tory 33% (-4)
Lib Dems 30% (+8)
Labour 28% (-4)

Other polls released after, show this to be not just a one off. It's a wonderful thought that politics could change this much. Not just the switch back and forth between Tory and Labour, but a fundamental shift in politics. That's really inspiring to me, because it's democracy in action, something I unapologetically believe in.

Yet it's worrying on another account, at these figures it would make Labour the winner in a hung parliament. Brown still in charge even though he is 3rd. The very notion that the electorate could vote for change and get Brown, could be a very divisive non victory.

Which is what this boost hangs on - if people all the way to the voting booth, believe that voting Lib Dem would make a difference, we could really see an amazing election. If however by voting Lib Dem people think it could end with Brown, they will vote tactically. That tactical "anything but Brown" vote has been the one persistent element to the polls. More persistent than Brown weathering coups.

So let's see if it's sustainable. Certainly making for an interesting election.

Election week two - Sanctimony

Most of this week has been dominated by the build up to the leaders debate, the leaders debate itself, the Lib Dems surge off the back of it, parties side swiping at each other, while saying they don't do negative campaigning and of course the launching of manifestos. Outside of that:

* Brown and Cameron agree to a Paxman grilling interview, Clegg has of course already done one. Have I said how much I love Paxman? What's not to love? Cynical, gumpy and serious about M&S pants.

* Cameron launched the Tory manifesto quoting JFK. To which David Miliband said:

The words may be John F Kennedy but the policies are pure George W Bush.

We'll let slide the utter hypocrisy of a New Labour bushy poodle making such a statement.

* Brown said he may have had a part to play in this recession. Saying in an interview:

[In 1997 the banks] all came to us and said, 'look, we don't want to be regulated, we want to be free of regulation'.

All the complaints I was getting from people was, 'look, you're regulating them too much'. The truth is that globally and nationally we should have been regulating them more.

So I've learnt from that. You don't listen to the industry when they say, 'this is good for us'. You've got to talk about the whole public interest.

Oh the realisation........ that's what the government is meant to do, govern for the people who elect them. Who would have thought?

Election Week One - In My Bag Is

An interesting week, if somewhat tedious, full of grinning politicians and glaring Gordon. I'll be doing this weekly post up to election day, essentially reading the news so you don't have to. It's a thankless task at the moment.

• The Digital Economy Bill was thrust through parliament, with little debate. Quite why it couldn't be scrutinised by the next parliament, given the concessions made by minsters. i.e restrictions on the activities of persistent copyright offenders will not come into force for a year. Instead indicative of New Labour, it was ushered along with little regard for due process. Finish how you started then. Its about the only consistent thing New Labour have done. Shamefully undemocratic and draconian.
  

• Brown spent some time this week promoting the utopian crime free future of a DNA state. The wonderful Shami Chakrabarti, director of Liberty, challenged him:

  It has been suggested that the tragic case of Sally Anne Bowman was only solved because her murderer was 'an innocent' on the database. In fact, he was arrested for a separate violent offence and it was then that his DNA was matched to the crime scene.

So taking the DNA of those convicted or arrested for crimes worked then? Who would have thought that if you had a targeted approach to collecting or retaining DNA, rather than an indiscriminate approach, it could be affective.

• Tories have pledged to erase the historic convictions of all those found guilty of consensual gay sex. This is with regard to several changes to the law over the years, yet due to that not being retroactive, there are people who have criminal records for homosexuality. This is a good idea, to tar people as a sex offender for having a consensual relationship, is just disgraceful. Though I don't imagine it being a large amount of people, it's the right, fair and just thing to do for them. I at last give my full support to a Tory policy.
  

• Jack Straw will face the mother of Gary McKinnon as she stands as a candidate for his Blackburn seat. She's wants to protest against Labour's erosion of civil liberties and the extradition treaty with the US. Good luck to Janis Sharp, though I don't imagine for a moment she will win, it will lead to some very uncomfortable moments for Jack Straw. Priceless.
  

Lastly, there were a lot of pledges in theory, smiles, staged photo shoots and "we will consider that" responses from the party leaders. Nothing new, other this pushing of the political wife into the limelight. Which has been nauseating.

The First Heckle

Day 2 of the election and there it is the first heckle. I did like the part about thinking Gordon wanted to talk to the public. Only Sir if you intend to say a planted question, are a Labour activist and have been frisked.

Election Called!

At last, bring on the election! Expect to see lots of baby kissing, manic smiles, many promises, Lord Mandleson and embarrassing moments from the main leaders, all the way to the polling station. Also expect every time any policy is mentioned, for Labour grab their calculators and start adding up to complain that it doesn't add up.

Most importantly though at long last, we get our say, we get to shape a mandate, we get a voice. I'm really looking forward to using mine.