Labour 3rd - Lib Dems Flying

What a poll.

Tory 33% (-4)
Lib Dems 30% (+8)
Labour 28% (-4)

Other polls released after, show this to be not just a one off. It's a wonderful thought that politics could change this much. Not just the switch back and forth between Tory and Labour, but a fundamental shift in politics. That's really inspiring to me, because it's democracy in action, something I unapologetically believe in.

Yet it's worrying on another account, at these figures it would make Labour the winner in a hung parliament. Brown still in charge even though he is 3rd. The very notion that the electorate could vote for change and get Brown, could be a very divisive non victory.

Which is what this boost hangs on - if people all the way to the voting booth, believe that voting Lib Dem would make a difference, we could really see an amazing election. If however by voting Lib Dem people think it could end with Brown, they will vote tactically. That tactical "anything but Brown" vote has been the one persistent element to the polls. More persistent than Brown weathering coups.

So let's see if it's sustainable. Certainly making for an interesting election.

General Election Tory Landslide PR

Robert Smithson on Political Betting has a very interesting post on a new election modelling system he has design. Which instead of applying a national swing to all 646 seats universally, the model is based on more local data that takes into account safe seats. With the current polls figures that gives Conservatives a majority of 148.

That raises both eyebrows, with that sort of majority the government doesn't have to listen to anyone. We will be in the same position we are now, as to reduce that amount of seats another party will have to get a landslide, or it will lessen over several terms in government to a level that can be defeated.

That's a ridiculous situation to be in. It's not democracy when you go from one extreme situation to another. I've always been slightly torn on the idea of proportional representation (PR), yet if these figures are right, I can't think of a clearer need for PR.

The main disadvantage said of PR is that it will weaken the government, yet that's exactly what we need. I don't imagine it will drastically change the political landscape in Britain, fringe parties do tend to be very singular in their message. That won't appeal to voters unless they want to make a protest, most people will vote as they've always have done, to form a government.

It's more important that with the two main parties both being a source of disenchantment for many and voter turn out dropping, that something changes. The first pass the post system doesn't offer change, just switching back and forth between parties, that increasing people don't vote for.

Trident Scrap it?

The Guardian conducted a poll on Trident, 54% said they would prefer to abandon nuclear weapons and 42% back renewal. That's a far higher percentage than you would imagine, deterrents have always had the majority of public support. Though it would need to be much higher than that to disarm.

My own view is within the 54%, yet I recognise that there is a psychological aspect to this, most pro nuclear arguments start with "what if". That is a valid argument as no one can answer "what if", but in 2009 it would take the complete failure of every political leader and the international community at large, for a nuclear weapon to be considered the only option left and for one to be used.

The biggest point and purpose to Trident has and always will be the political status having nuclear weapons present. Nick Clegg is the only politician being sensible about it, a review of our defence at large is needed in 2009 as this isn't the Cold War any more, would money be better spent on other equipment. Given the largest issue we face is terrorism, how will a nuclear weapon stop or deter that. If a terrorist managed to set off a dirty bomb in London, do we respond by dropping a nuke on . . . . . . where do we drop one? Terrorists aren't just sitting around a camp fire in a remote location, do we punish the country of their nationality? What if it's Britain?

Trident isn't the only option and maintaining the status quo for the sake of it or politics, isn't the right thing to do. What would be is making sure we are able and equipped to tackle defence in 2000s not 1980s. If a nuclear deterrent is necessary to do that, then so be it, but at least question and debate it, not as a political decision but defensive one.

June the Forth be With You

I know apathy, cynicism and anger is ripe, but your vote is the one thing parliament can not ignore. Whether it's for issues that are important to you, a protest, tactical, anti EU or pro EU, speak up and use you vote!

For those still unsure who to vote for I gathered pledges together here. For those that want to tactically vote current polls are:

Conservative - 26%(-1)
UKIP - 18%(+2)
Labour - 16%(-1)
Lib Dems - 15%(nc)
Green - 10%(+1)
BNP - 5%(-2)

It's going to be a close call for third place, so clearly influencing the third place vote or enforcing second place, is the best tactical vote to make depending on your EU views and the area you live.

UKIP Overtake Labour In The Polls

This election looks to be more a case of how do you like your Labour, well cooked or cremated? The European voting intentions are:

Conservative - 30% (-4)
UKIP - 19% (+13)
Labour - 16% (-9)
Lib Dems - 12% (-8)
Green - 10% (+5)
BNP - 5% (+3)

General election figures:

Conservative - 41% (+2)
Labour - 21% (-6)
Lib Dems - 15 (-2)

They've beaten the lowest Labour record of 23% set in 1981, 2% more and they will become the most unpopular party on record, claiming the title from Majors government, who at their lowest dropped to 20% in the polls. Come on Labour you can do it, you've already started to become the most history making party.

Voter Intentions Post Expense

Conservative - 41% (-2)
Labour - 22% (-5)
Lib Dems - 19 (+1)
Others - 18% (see how that breaks down)

That's the lowest Labour have been since records began. Anthony Wells at UK Polling says about this result:

It is worth considering that YouGov normally give the Liberal Democrats their lowest ratings - if this poll had been carried out by ICM we might very well be looking at a poll with Labour in third place.

The European voting intentions are very interesting to:

Conservative - 29% (-7)
Labour - 20% (-5)
Lib Dems - 19% (-1)
UKIP - 15% (+8)
Green - 6% (+2)
BNP - 3% (-1)
SNP/PC- 4% (nc)

I'm basing swing calculations on what I believe is YouGov's last poll. Either way it's a big swing towards UKIP, BNP haven't benefited from the expense saga as of yet.

Polls Getting Browner

From the polls in Scotland, it looks like Labour are going to lose to the SNP. Nothing says thanks for the devolution quite like that.

The pre budget polls are holding at the same level to:

Conservative - 45% N/C
Labour - 27% N/C
Lib Dems - 17 -1

That's a 18 point lead for the Tories, which is just awful for Labour. It begs belief that they're still talking about an election next year. As there's no bounce back from that, it's just free falling without a parachute.

First Poll Results - Post Sleaze

Conservative - 43% -1
Labour - 26% -5
Lib Dems - 21 +3

This poll was taken Wednesday and Thursday so includes SmearGate and police assaults backlash, but not Damien Green and police manslaughter charges being raised.

That's quite a drop, but a move from Labour to the Lib Dems, which would reflect left wing core voters like Alice Mahon who said:

“I can no longer be a member of a party that at the leadership level has betrayed many of the values and principles that inspired me as a teenager to join.”

If they keep going at this rate, Labour will become the third party and that's the perfect warning shot that parliament needs. Not only to generate the shock we need to send them for change and accountably, but Lib Dems in opposition would be a good balance against the Tories to govern from. The next poll will be interesting.

First Poll After G20

Conservative - 41% NC
Labour - 34% +3
Lib Dem - 16 -1

It's not a much of a bounce, given for the last 5 days Brown has saturated the news. UK Polling Anthony Wells points out with regard to Lib Dems and not Conservatives being effected.

My guess is that we are seeing people who would normally be Labour supporters drifting over to abstentions and protest votes when the government are in trouble, and then returning to Labour at times when Brown and Labour are seeming more effective and competent.

Not Much Of An Obama Bounce Poll

Following on from my Obama bounce post, the first polls after Brown's meeting are in (read more).

Conservatives - 42% N/C
Labour - 30% +2
Lib Dems - 19% +1

It's worth noting that 2% is within the margin of error, which is roughly 3% overall.