Thursday, 23 July 2009

General Election Tory Landslide PR

Robert Smithson on Political Betting has a very interesting post on a new election modelling system he has design. Which instead of applying a national swing to all 646 seats universally, the model is based on more local data that takes into account safe seats. With the current polls figures that gives Conservatives a majority of 148.

That raises both eyebrows, with that sort of majority the government doesn't have to listen to anyone. We will be in the same position we are now, as to reduce that amount of seats another party will have to get a landslide, or it will lessen over several terms in government to a level that can be defeated.

That's a ridiculous situation to be in. It's not democracy when you go from one extreme situation to another. I've always been slightly torn on the idea of proportional representation (PR), yet if these figures are right, I can't think of a clearer need for PR.

The main disadvantage said of PR is that it will weaken the government, yet that's exactly what we need. I don't imagine it will drastically change the political landscape in Britain, fringe parties do tend to be very singular in their message. That won't appeal to voters unless they want to make a protest, most people will vote as they've always have done, to form a government.

It's more important that with the two main parties both being a source of disenchantment for many and voter turn out dropping, that something changes. The first pass the post system doesn't offer change, just switching back and forth between parties, that increasing people don't vote for.

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